It's (almost) October ladies and gentlemen, so you all know what that means!
Hockey!
The MLB postseason!
Before the year, I made some good calls, such as the Royals making the playoffs, even though I went all out and took them to win their division. I also made some horrendous calls, such as picking the Rays to win the AL Pennant, as well as having the Red Sox and Rangers in the playoffs, but I wasn't alone.
But enough about the past. There are 10 teams still alive, and it all starts tonight with the AL Wild Card game. To get you all set for the playoffs, here are my thoughts on what will happen.
OUT Lions: TE Joseph Fauria (ankle), LB Travis Lewis (quadricep), CB Cassius Vaughn (ankle) Jets: None DOUBTFUL Lions: S Don Carey (hamstring), T LaAdrian Waddle (calf) Jets: CB Dee Milliner (quadricep) QUESTIONABLE Lions: WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), FB Montell Owens (hamstring) Jets: WR Eric Decker (hamstring)
PROBABLE Lions: DE Ezekiel Ansah (knee), RB Joique Bell (knee), DT Nick Fairley (biceps), S James Ihedigbo (neck), DE George Johnson (groin), RB Theo Riddick (hamstring) Jets: G Willie Colon (calf), OL Dalton Freeman (knee), RB Chris Johnson (ankle), C Nick Mangold (shoulder), WR David Nelson (illness), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (knee)
The Seahawks somehow survived the "illogical if Peyton Manning wasn't at QB" backdoor cover that the Broncos pulled off, by winning the game in overtime by a touchdown, saving everyone who expected them to cover the 5 point spread.
Of course the Giants messed with me twice this week. After prematurely expecting the nonsense Giants victory that they seem to pull out of their hat at will, I gave up on them last week against Houston. So, naturally, they won.
Then on Thursday night, I made my pick on Twitter (@WilliamBotchway) as always:
My pick for tonight's game: WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM (-3) over Giants. I know the Giants are going to troll me and win.
— William Botchway (@WilliamBotchway) September 26, 2014
What did the Giants proceed to do? Troll me and win? But of course. UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.
OUT Bears: C Robert Garza (ankle), LB Shea McClellin (hand), CB Sherrick McManis (quadricep), NT Jeremiah Ratliff (concussion), G Matt Slauson (ankle) Jets: None DOUBTFUL Bears: DE Trevor Scott (foot) Jets: CB Dee Milliner (ankle) QUESTIONABLE Bears: WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), WR Brandon Marshall (ankle) Jets: WR Eric Decker (hamstring)
PROBABLE Bears: DE Jared Allen (back), S Chris Conte (shoulder), WR Josh Morgan (groin) Jets: LB Nick Bellore (hip), DB Josh Bush (quadricep), G Willie Colon (calf), LB Quinton Coples (elbow), LB A.J. Edds (hamstring), RB Chris Johnson (ankle), C Nick Mangold (shoulder)
I also don't want to talk about how I was fooled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the second straight season. I made my Thursday night pick on Twitter (@WilliamBotchway)
I was late, but you have to trust that I would have made this pick before the game. Schoolwork got in the way and I totally forgot to tweet my pick.
My pick for tonight (yes, I forgot to tweet it out earlier): FALCONS (-6.5) over Buccaneers
— William Botchway (@WilliamBotchway) September 19, 2014
Week 1 was by far the worst week in my two years of making picks. So many horrible losses due to backdoor covers, flaws in logic, and just being plain wrong. Most of my losses were very infuriating after following the games throughout the day.
I nearly cried when only 11 seconds into overtime, Marques Colston fumbled away my chance at getting another win in what was already a brutal week for me. I understand that had the fumble not occurred, I would have lost the game anyway. Why? Because it's the NFL and this always happens; the Saints would have gotten into the red zone, stalled, kicked a field goal, then stopped the Falcons on the ensuing drive, winning the game but finding a way to anger me by failing to cover the line by half a point.
Still! There was a nonzero chance that Mark Ingram scored his third 3-yard touchdown of the game (because that's the only reason why he's still in the NFL) to put the game away, cover the spread, and give me some semblance of hope after beginning the week at 2-8. But Colston fumbled.
So yes, that means that in two straight games, Colston has screwed the Saints out of a chance to win. Remember the Divisional Playoffs last season? After scoring with 26 seconds left, and recovering an onside kick, Colston and the Saints actually had a chance to tie the game in Seattle.
In fact, all of that was captured in the article that I wrote the next week:
Despite Marques Colston literally throwing away any chance the Saints had to tie last week's game in Seattle, I must thank him for sealing a backdoor cover with his onside kick recovery. Had the Seahawks recovered that kick, the most likely would have at least kicked a field goal to ice the game, and win by a margin of 11 points, rather than 8. So thanks Colston, the entire state of Louisiana may have shunned you, but everyone who jumped on the Saints when the line shot up to 9.5 will love you forever.
Here's an amazing video that I just found, documenting Colston's horrible play in one of the most hilarious ways possible.
For whatever reason, the song fits perfectly. And I credit the creator of the video for not choosing to go with the old, played out, Yakety Sax route.
The play in January didn't matter to me, but now that a bad Colston play has totally screwed me out of a win, I'm done with you Marques.
You thought I was done ranting about my Week 1 losses? Think again, son (or daughter).
The Jacksonville Jaguars jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead in Philadelphia, led by two touchdowns by one of the better receivers in the history of The U, and Nick Foles looking completely worthless.
Just when I was beginning to pat myself on the back for taking the points, the Jags remembered that they are in fact, the Jags. They failed to the score in the second half, and the Eagles were up 24-17 with two minutes left.
And that's when the backdoor cover insanity occurred. The Eagles kicked up field goal to go up by 10 points, which was okay with me because they were 10.5 point favorites, so I was getting giddy as the clock winded down.
So, naturally, Fletcher Cox returned a Chad Henne strip sack for a 17-yard touchdown two plays into Jacksonville's ensuing possession.
Yep, Derek Carr did in fact pull off a 1 point backdoor cover with 1:21 remaining, in an Eastern Time Zone, against Rex Ryan, in his NFL debut. Because, why not? Why the hell not?
I was wrong for backing the Ravens. All signs pointed to a Bengals victory, so that was a bad pick by me. I'm okay with that loss, only because it meant that I was able to cheer when Steve Smith, Sr. stiff armed Pacman Jones into oblivion.
Taking the Pats in Miami freaked me out, and I was proven wrong.
The title of this week's column probably should be "because, why not?" As in, why did Derek Anderson win in Tampa Bay while starting for the first time since he was completing 51.7% of his passes in Arizona in 2010? Because, why not? Why did Bobby Rainey fumble on Tampa's final possession while down 3 points with a chance to win the game and cover? Because, WHY NOT?
Why did Andrew Luck lead a senseless comeback, leading the Colts to a cover after being down 31-10 in the fourth quarter? Because, why not? Andrew Luck is a certified troll. His whole career to this point has been based off of leading a very mediocre Colts team to the playoffs each year, growing a great beard, randomly becoming a mixture of Peyton Manning and Joe Montana against the best teams in the league, randomly becoming a mixture of Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf against the worst teams in the league, and pulling off annoying backdoor covers.
Following a terrible performance last week, I got Week 2 off to a rip-roaring start with...a loss.
My pick for tonight's game: Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS. I feel horrible about my pick either way
— William Botchway (@WilliamBotchway) September 11, 2014
As always, I made my Thursday night pick on Twitter, (@WilliamBotchway). I cannot be blamed for that pick, as the Ravens were without Lardarius Webb again, and still stuck in my head is the fact that the favorite failed to cover the spread in both Ravens-Steelers games last year by a combined 1 point. (Of course I took the favorite in both games...because, why not?)
I'm now 0-2 in Thursday games, and 4-13 overall. I feel alright about my choices for this week, so let's get on with the show!
UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.
I'm feeling great right now. There will be 13 football games on between the hours of 1 and 11:30 PM, and I'm now writing my picks column, which is always fun to do, and one of the highlights of my week.
I had a great bounce-back season last year, finishing 132-119-5 in the regular season, and 138-124-5 overall.
And I've already gotten a great sign with my opening night pick, because I got absolutely demolished with my pick on Thursday. And that's what happened last year, so it looks like I'm in for a nice year.
As always with Thursday games, I tweeted my pick because there's no use in writing a full article to talk about one game. Here's the pick:
Tonight's pick: Packers (+5.5) over SEAHAWKS.
— William Botchway (@WilliamBotchway) September 4, 2014
As a warning, the top part of these rankings is very NFC-heavy. Sort of like the Western Conference in the NBA, the NFC is loaded with great teams, and unfortunately, some of the better teams in the league wind up missing the playoffs, and/or have a record much worse than the team's actual talent would suggest. As seen in my division previews so far, and you will see again in my full preview tomorrow, some teams that I'm relatively high on will end up with lower win totals than you would expect based on their rankings. It is for that reason that I chose not to write down the team records in this article, so that all of these teams can be judged in a vacuum.
All of the rankings are based on how the team will look by the end of the year, and the beginning of the postseason. For example, the 49ers will not be as high as I have them for the entirety of the regular season, but when they get NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith back and performing at a high level, they'll be a better squad.
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears
Washington Professional Football Team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys
St. Louis Rams
Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
I wrote about all of these teams in my divisional previews, so for more information, go back and read all of those.
This was easily the best division in football last year, but I think that they'll take a step back. The defending champs are going to be great again, and the 49ers are not far behind. As for the Cardinals and Rams, they will definitely be worse.
Photo courtesy of CBS Sports
Seattle Seahawks 2013 Record: 13-3 Yards Per Game: 339 (18th in the NFL) Points Per Game: 26.1 (tied-8th in the NFL) Yards Per Game Allowed: 273.6 (1st in the NFL) Points Per Game Allowed: 14.4 (1st in the NFL) The reigning World Champions once again look like one of the best teams in football. They lost Golden Tate and Sidney Rice, depleting the receiving corps, but Percy Harvin is an elite player when he's healthy, so his availability will be key. This defense is by far the best and the deepest in the league. We all saw what they did to Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the Super Bowl, so I don't think I need to say much else. The Seahawks look primed to repeat as champions this year, and it's going to be hard to pick anyone else to win the Lombardi Trophy.
I see the AFC Champion Denver Broncos running away with this division. This is the widest gap between a division champ and second place that I see this year. There just isn't much to get excited about after Manning and Co.
Photo courtesy of The Denver Post
Denver Broncos
2013 Record: 13-3
Yards Per Game: 457.3 (1st in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 37.9 (1st in the NFL. By a wide margin.)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 356 (19th in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 24.9 (22nd in the NFL)
I don't need to say anything about Denver's offense other than: Peyton Manning is the quarterback.
The defense got a lot better this offseason by acquiring two players who are among the best at their respective positions in defensive end DeMarcus Ware, and safety T.J. Ward. Replacing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with Aqib Talib is a slight upgrade, but the other two moves were huge. Add in a full season from Von Miller, the Broncos defense should be one of the best in the league.
After being manhandled by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, the Broncos re-tooled and look poised to take home the Lombardi Trophy this season. And I'm not sure that anyone can stop them.
Last year's division winner will regress horribly, and the two cellar dwellers will be a lot better. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints (outside of the post-bounty scandal season) have been the one constant in this division year after year.
Photo courtesy of ESPN
Carolina Panthers
2013 Record: 12-4
Yards Per Game: 316.8 (26th in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 22.9 (18th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 301.2 (2nd in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 15.1 (2nd in the NFL)
After surprising many, and riding their great defense to a division title last season, the Carolina Panthers got a lot worse during the offseason, and will end up being among the worst teams in the NFL.
The offense was nothing special last year, and it should be a lot worse now. There was a bunch of turnover in the receiving corps, and most of it wasn't impressive. They drafted Kelvin Benjamin, which I liked, but signing Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant to be guys that play legitimate roles on this offense is worrisome.
Left tackle Jordan Gross retired this offseason, which is a problem for the 2014 Panthers, because they did not find a suitable replacement for him. Outside of Ryan Kalil in the middle, the offensive line is an issue.
As for the defense, the front seven is great, and everything else is horrible. I mentioned when previewing the AFC South that a great pass rush can make up for some deficiencies in the secondary, but that is not the case when the entire secondary is bad. As great as Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are at getting to the quarterback, the guys playing behind them will be victimized before they even get to the opposing signal caller.
I still think that Carolina has the best front seven in the NFL, but a weak secondary, a bad offense, and a strong conference will hold this team back for a year. There is enough talent currently on the team that even if they are terrible, whoever they take in the first round of the draft (probably a defensive back) could propel them back to the playoffs.
This is the worst division in football, by far. I don't see any teams getting above 9 wins. Neither the Colts or Texans are spectacular, and the Jaguars and Titans are clearly bottom half teams in the league.
Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report
Indianapolis Colts
2013 Record: 11-5
Yards Per Game: 341.8 (15th in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 24.4 (tied-14th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 357.1 (20th in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 21 (9th in the NFL)
Now it's time for that point in the preseason where I get to hate on the Colts while trying to do everything possible to find a scenario in which they miss the playoffs, and secretly accepting the fact that they will continue to be the most annoying team in the NFL and be better than they should be.
The only reason why this team has gone 11-5 in each of the past two years has been a bunch of good luck and Luck being more than good.
We know what this offense is: Andrew Luck being Andrew Luck and throwing Andrew Luck passes to T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, whatever replacement level they decide will be their third wideout, whoever happens to be playing tight end (be it Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen, both of whom are pretty good), all while getting minimal help from the running backs and the offensive line.
Where this team will falter once again is on defense, especially without the best player on the defense, Robert Mathis, for the first four games of the year. He's pretty much the only player on the defense that interests me, unless I feel like talking about how bad Erik Walden is. Vontae Davis is a great cornerback at times, but tends to be inconsistent.
For the most part, the defense consists of average and below average players who will be playing important roles.
Because this is the worst division in football, the Colts will win it once again, by default. Until they improve their defense, Indianapolis will not be able to advance past the divisional round of the postseason.
